PLN says it received request from ministry to buy Inalum shares

A director of state electricity company PT PLN says that the company has received instructions from the government to purchase a stake in aluminium producer PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Inalum).
A contract signed in 1976 and due to end in 2013 gave a consortium of Japanese companies, Nippon Asahan Aluminium Co Ltd (NAA), a 58.8 percent stake in Inalum and the remainder to the Indonesian government.
Once the current contract with NAA expires, the government plans to take over Inalum, rather than renew its contract.
PLN received a letter from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry requesting that it acquire the stake, PLN business and risk management director Murtaqi Syamsuddin said Monday, as reported by kontan.co.id.
Previously, state mining company PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) president director Alwin Syah Loebis had said his company was ready to purchase the stake.
However, ANTM’s company secretary Bimo Budi Satrio declined to comment on the option of a joint venture with PLN.
“We are still waiting for [orders from] government,” he said.
The government needs around US$700 million to purchase the NAA stake.

Reference: The Jakarta Post in Business

RI economy grew 6.1% in 2010: BPS

JAKARTA. Indonesia's economy grew 6.1 percent last year, higher than the government's official forecast of 5.8 percent in the nation's 2010 state budget, Central Statistics Agency (BPS) data shows.
BPS chair Rusman Heriawan said Monday that Indonesia’s economic growth was mainly driven by domestic consumption, which accounted for 56.7 percent of the country's economy, as well as investment, which was 32.2 percent.
“On a quarterly basis, the economy grew by 6.9 percent in the last quarter of 2010, the highest in many years,” Rusman said.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) was Rp 6,422.9 trillion (US$712.9 billion) as of the end of 2010.

Source: Kontan online

Title BI Rate raised 25 bps to 6.75%

No. 13 /03/ PSHM / Humas

In the Board of Governor’s Meeting convened on 4 February 2011, Bank Indonesia decided to increase the BI Rate by 25 basis points (bps) or 0.25% to 6.75%.  This decision represents an anticipatory measure to curb the renewed onset of increased inflation expectations .  The rise in inflation expectations has been triggered primarily by further steep increases in volatile food prices, in addition to the escalating prices for globally-traded commodities, including oil, and Government policy planning for strategic commodities. Bank Indonesia will keep a close watch on future inflation developments and strengthen the rupiah exchange rate policy in line with measures to curb future inflationary pressures in addition to the macroprudential policies introduced in 2010. With this monetary and macroprudential policy mix and Government actions to bring down high food commodity prices, the Board of Governors is confident that inflation can be curbed in line with the target of 5% ±1% for 2011 for 2011 and 4.5% ±1% for 2012.

The outlook for the world economy is one of continued improvement ahead of earlier forecasts. This trend reinforces the confidence of the Board of Governors in the outlook for the Indonesian economy, with growth for 2011 forecasted in the 6.0%-6.5% range.  Q1/2011 growth is predicted to reach 6.4% on the strength of buoyant domestic demand and external sector improvements.  Exports will maintain vigorous growth in line with the global economic recovery. Imports are also set to climb, particularly for capital goods needed to support capacity expansion in the economy. Accordingly, the current account is again forecasted to post a considerable surplus in Q1/2011. The capital and financial account is also predicted to chart a sizeable surplus in response to heavy inflows of capital for direct investment (FDI). Taken together, the Indonesia balance of payments is again forecasted to achieve respectable surplus in Q1/2011.  International reserves at 31 January 2011 were recorded at USD95.3 billion, equivalent to 6.3 months of imports and servicing of official debt.

The rupiah sustained some pressure from capital outflows. The rupiah weakened while charting increased volatility, a development sparked among others by market jitters over rising inflationary pressure. During January, the rupiah exchange rate fell by an average 0.1% to Rp 9,034 to the USD. The Board of Governors is confident that the capital outflows and rupiah depreciation are more of a temporary nature in view of the strength of Indonesia's economic fundamentals as attested by the decision by the Moody's rating agency to boost Indonesia's sovereign credit rating to Ba1 with outlook stable.  Furthermore, Bank Indonesia policies aimed at exchange rate stabilisation helped to restore the stability of the rupiah.

The Board of Governors is keeping a close watch on a renewed increase in inflation expectations. CPI inflation in January 2011 reached 0.89% (mtm) or 7.02% (yoy). The high rate of inflation is explained primarily by high volatile foods inflation running at 18.25% (yoy) as a result of further crop losses and disruptions in distribution of rice and seasonings. However, administered prices charted moderate inflation at 5.21% (yoy), while core inflation is relatively subdued at a mild 4.18% (yoy). Despite this, inflation expectations have begun to climb as reflected in indicators for the inflation expectations in the Consumer Expectations Survey, Producers Survey and prices for financial assets.  While triggered by the steep increases in volatile food prices, the surge in inflation expectations has also come in response to rising global commodity prices and the Government plan to reduce the fuel subsidy. The Board of Governors believes that the rising inflation expectations call for an appropriate response to avert future inflationary pressures.

Financial system stability remained secure alongside steady improvement in the banking intermediation function. The solid condition of the banking industry is reflected in the high capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and subdued non-performing loans (NPLs) gross at below 5%. Further improvement in banking intermediation is also reflected in progressively improving credit growth, recorded in 2010 at 22.8% (yoy) on the strength of expansion in all lending categories including credit to MSMEs. 

The Board of Governors stresses the importance of measures to strengthen policy coordination with the Government. To curb the risk of future inflationary pressure still expected from crop losses and problems in the distribution of food and energy commodities, further measures will be introduced to stabilise prices with support from Government policy through the Inflation Control Team at the central level (TPI) and in the regions (TPIDs). 

The complete report of the deliberations of the Board of Governors’ Meeting for February 2011, featuring macroeconomic and monetary policy developments, will be presented in the Monetary Policy Review (MPR) on the Bank Indonesia website.
Jakarta, 4 February 2011
Office of The Governor

Difi A. Johansyah

Government Proposes 3 Measures to Safeguard Bond Market

The government announced three ways it can buy government bonds (SUN) to safeguard the local bond market when sudden reversals occur, Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo says.

The first measure would be to utilize funds allocated by state firms to buy government bonds to stabilize spiking prices when capital outflows occur in the Indonesians debt market, Agus said Monday.

The second measure, he said, will use funds from the state budget’s monthly surplus, while the third measure would be to utilize funds from the budget’s overall surplus (SAL).

“We will ask for the House of Representatives to approve the use of SAL funds to stabilize bond prices,” Agus said after a meeting at the Coordinating Economic Ministry in Jakarta.

Other than the bond fund, Agus said Bank Indonesia could also use Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, which reached US$96 billion by the end of December 2010, as well as bond buyback funds allocated in the 2011 state budget, to tackle sudden reversals.

Source: The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Mon, 01/31/2011 1:13 PM | Business

The table of Average, Standard Deviation, Highest and Lowest

	High Price	Low Price	Closing Price	Volume Traded
Average	3,970.3431	3,874.8775	3,928.7990	37,312,426.4706
Standard Deviation	182.0359	183.4517	183.7142	24,942,564.0148
Highest	4,400.0000	4,300.0000	4,325.0000	163,591,500.0000
Lowest	3,450.0000	3,250.0000	3,250.0000	7,045,500.0000

Analysis of Stock Price

For the high price we can conclude that the data from january to april the high price increase 8,42%, from january to june the high price increase 1,05%, next from january to august the high price is increase 5,79%, and the last from january to october the high price is 5,26%

For the low price we can conclude that the data from january to april the low price increase 8,11%, from january to june the low price increase 1,08%, next from january to august the low price is increase 8,11% same like on january to april, and the last from january to october the low price is 5,41%.

For the close price we can conclude that the data from january to april the close price increase 8,59%, from january to june the close price increase 9,33%, next from january to august the close price is increase 7,60%, and the last from january to october the close price is 5,60%.

And the last For the volume traded we can conclude that the data from january to april the volume traded increase 21,82%, from january to june the volume traded decrease 4,98%, next from january to august the volume traded is decrease 31,57%, and the last from january to october the volume traded is 49,14%.. we can conclude that when in may untill august there is something wrong with the company so the number of buyer who buy the stocks was decrease than first 2 month and the last two month. But when the number of buyer was decrease it doesn’t effect with the open price and the high price because in the analysis data show us increasing trend from the open price or the high price.

Average

High and low prices are not stable over time, because the stock’s price will tend to have an average price over time. When the current market price is below the average price, the stock is considered attractive to be purchased, and the price will be expected that it will rise. When the current market price is above the average price, the price will be expected that it will fall. The conclusion is the deviation from the average price is expected to revert to the average.

From the data above, the average price of stock of Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk in almost a year between January 4^th, 2010 until October 30^th, 2010 for the high price of stock is Rp3,970.3431. From the data between 5/1/2010-12/1/2010, 14/1/2010, 11/3/2010-5/5/2010, 18/6/2010-22/6/2010, 28/6/2010, 6/7/2010-2/9/2010, 13/10/2010-29/10/2010 shows that the price of stock is above average price, it means that the price is too high to be purchased, then the price will be expected that it will fall. For the low price of stock, the average price is Rp3,874.8775. Beside the dates of high prices or except the dates, the stock prices are considered to be purchased because the price is below the average price, then the price will be expected that it will rise based on the stock price of Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk.

The average price of closing price Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk stock is Rp3,928.7990. On 11/1/2010, 14/1/2010-10/3/2010, 12/4/2010, 7/5/2010-17/6/2010, 23/6/2010-5/7/2010, 2/7/2010-7/7/2010, 22/9/2010-12/10/2010 Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk got their best performance on selling stock because the price of the stock in this period is below the average price. But unfortunately, except the dates above, Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk faces the problem that the price of stock is above the average price which means that the stock will difficult to be sold and it will fall down in market price because the price is high.

In the end, the average volume of Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk from the data is Rp37,312,426.4706. On January 14^th, 2010 Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk has good performance in selling stock because in this date the volume traded reaches Rp163,591,500.0000.

Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is often used by investors to measure the risk of a stock or a stock portfolio. The basic idea is that the standard deviation is a measure of volatility: the more stock's returns vary from the stock's average return, the more volatile the stock.

From the table above, in the volume traded, there is significant difference between the average Rp37,312,426.4706 and the standard deviation Rp24,942,564.0148. From those numbers, the standard deviation is lower than the average. The answer is, there is small dispersion in volume or the volume has low volatility.

It can be seen that the data collected is so low dispersed. It indicates risky condition by having the stock in Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk. The reason comes from the result of standard deviation calculation. The standard deviation is low, so this company’s stock exchange price has low possibility to change, which means that the price is almost constantly stable but it is not too stable.

Highest and Lowest

Volume Traded

On August 12^th, 2010, the low price of volume traded is Rp7,045,500.0000 and on October 14^th, 2010, the high price of volume traded is Rp163,591,500.0000. They indicate that the prices of volume traded mean Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk has many transactions during the period. Probably, the investors are interested to invest their money in Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk because the stocks in the Company are so attractive.

High and Low Price

The highest of high stock price is Rp4,400.0000 per shares on May 25^th, 2010. Probably, Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk has proved the highest price is supported by many transactions. The price of stocks increase because a lot of demands are occurred.

On May 25^th, 2010 the lowest of low stock price is Rp3,250.0000 and it is same with the date of the highest of high stock price. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk did not have much transaction which means the Company is not attracting enough the stockholders to buy the stocks in Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk. The lowest of low stock price could be influenced by this factor.

Closing Price

The different between the highest price and the lowest price is relatively high, it can be seen from the highest closing price is Rp 4,325.0000 per shares, it reached on March 25^th, 2010 and March 26^th, 2010. But, the lowest closing price is Rp3,250.0000 per shares, it reached on May 25^th, 2010. The difference between them indicates Perusahaan Gas Negara has a risk, because the fluctuation of the Company is unpredictable and unstable.